We sometimes wonder how we end up thinking as we do. It is as if we are in a different universe compared to other commentators. Last week we read after we wrote our commentary the expectations of others. Last week we estimated based on the USDA’s March 1 Hogs and Pigs Report, that lean hogs would be 89-98 lean in May-August of 2015. Below are other estimates.
正如我们在做的，我们有时候会想我们要如何结束思考 。我们似乎和其它评论家生活在不同的世界 。上周写完评论后，我们读了其他人的预测 。上周，我们根据美国农业部3月1日的生猪报告预测2015年5月—8月的瘦肉猪价格应该在89~98美分之间 。下面是其他人的预测 。
Obviously, our expectation is between $35-50 per head higher than others (economists) are. We are not exactly following the crowd. Why do we think so different?
很明显，我们每头35~50美元的预测要高于其它(经济学家)的观点 。我们确实没有跟随主流 。为什么我们会有不同的想法?
The US March 1 Market hog Inventory this year was 124,000 head less than March 1 2014: In 2013 Lean Hogs averaged 95? lean May-August. Same number of Hogs in inventory 2015.
今年美国3月1日的生猪存栏是124,000头，比2014年3月1日的数量更低 。2013年5月~8月的瘦肉猪平均价格为95美元 。2015年的生猪存栏量不变 。
US Pork Cut-outs were 64.44 last Thursday. US Beef Cut-outs 256.40 last Thursday. Beef Cut-outs currently 4 times Pork Cut-outs. We absolutely believe this spread will narrow as consumers up consumption of Pork due to its economic advantage. Demand increases prices. We see little reason for Beef prices to decline with US Beef Production down 5% year over year and inventory levels at a record low. IF Pork Cut-outs reach $1.00 Beef will still be 2.5 time more expensive.
上周四，美国猪肉切块的价格为64.44美分/lb 。上周四，美国牛肉切块的价格为256.40美分/lb 。牛肉切块价格目前是猪肉切块的4倍 。由于价格优势，我们绝对相信随着消费者增加猪肉的消费，这一差价将会缩小 。需求推高价格 。由于美国牛肉产量下降5%且存栏量处于历史低位，我们认为牛肉价格下跌可能不大 。如果猪肉切块的价格达到1美元，牛肉的价格仍将高出2.5倍 。
The US population is approximately 4 million more people more than in 2013. This increases demand. More people at flat per capita consumption in itself increases demand. 4 million more people will need a minimum extra one million market hogs to meet their average pork demand requirements.
美国人口比2013 年增加约400万 。这增加了需求 。在人均消费量保存不变的情况下，人口的增长将会增加需求 。增加的4百万人口将需求增加至少1百万头猪来满足平均的猪肉需求 。
We also see market weights declining. A year ago, the National Lean Hog Weight this past week was 214.45 lbs., last week this year hog weights are 214.40. Lower weights will cut pork supply and help strengthen lean hog prices.
我们还看到上市体重下降 。去年的上一周，全国瘦肉猪体重为214.45 lb 。今年的上一周生猪体重为214.40 lb 。体重下降将减少猪肉供应并有助于提振瘦肉猪价格 。
Sow herd expansion is ongoing but it will not effect to any degree the number of hogs going to market in the next five months as they were all born and in place March 1. What we have to sell to market until the end of August are already in pipeline. There are no more pigs than March 1, 2013.
母猪群的扩张正在进行，但这不会影响到未来5个月的生猪出栏数量 。这些情况发生在3月1日，而现在的猪都是过去出生的 。要到8月底，我们才开始出售这些商品猪 。猪的数量并没有比2013年3月1日更多 。
We strongly expect greater exports to China to kick in. Huge herd liquidation of 7 million sows, China Hog prices double current US hog prices will push pork to China. When it happens, major market mover.
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