我们非常希望能开始有更多出口到中国 。中国有7百万头母猪的大量淘汰,而中国的生猪价格是目前美国生猪价格的2倍,这将驱动猪肉出口到中国 。这一旦发生,将对市场造成较大的影响 。
Other Observations
我们的观察
Was at the London Swine Conference this past week. The Olymel-Quebec Packer strike was a major topic as it is causing major havoc in Ontario with the loss of 25,000 shackle spaces. We expect this will put a lid on Ontario Production expansion with ongoing worries where market hogs can fine homes. At some point the strike will be settled but it effect will linger over market consideration for a long time. (news flash – Olymel has settled with union, back to work on Tuesday)
伦敦养猪大会上周举行 。Olymel在魁北克屠宰厂的罢工是一个热门的话题,因为这给安大略省带来了严重破坏,损失了25,000头合同空间 。由于对商品猪出路的持续担心,我们这将会影响安大略的生产扩张 。罢工最终会被解决,但这仍将对市场在很长时间内造成影响 。(最新消息:Olymel已经和工会和解,周二复工 。)
Interesting video on Gestation Housing take a look it give a perspective on sow housing many in our industry will agree with.
有一个关于妊娠舍的视频很有趣,值得一看 。这个视频基于母猪舍的视角,我们行业的很多人都会同意 。
On the Corn front, USDA came out with predictions of more land going into Corn than expected. It appears that there will be significant Corn and Soybeans planted. The wildcard is weather. Good weather feed stays reasonable. Draught different story. All bets off.
关于玉米的最新消息,美国农业部发布预测称玉米的种植面积比期望的更多 。看上去会有大量的玉米和大豆种植 。决定因素就是天气 。天气好的情况下,饲料就会合理 。干旱则是另外一种情况 。原来的预测全部推翻 。
Corn in China is currently 10.50 USD/bushel, Soymeal 550 USD/ton. With relatively low sow productivity, high disease levels etc. the combination of feed costs and low productivity is why China’s breakeven is around 85? USD liveweight/lb.
当前的中国玉米价格为每蒲式耳10.5美元,大豆为每吨550美元 。母猪的生产力相对较低,疾病情况严重 。加上饲料成本和低生产效率,这就是为什么中国的保本价在85美分/lb左右 。
Not sure how this will effect hog market, but we are hearing stories of ongoing major mortalities in the Carolinas from Prrs.
不确定这会对生猪市场造成什么影响,但是我们最近听说蓝耳病在卡罗利纳造成了持续大量死亡 。
总结
Summary
We are projecting lean hog prices mid 90’s this summer. This is significantly higher than other commentators. We believe market inventory levels, relative to demand both domestic and international will lead to summer prices similar to 2013. Mid 90’s.
我们预测今年夏天的瘦肉猪价格在95美分左右 。这明显比其它评论家的预测更高 。我们相信,根据商品猪存栏情况以及国内和国际的需求情况将会使夏季的猪价格和2013年类似 。95美分左右 。
"Economists are like computers. They need to have facts punched into them: ~ Kenneth Boulding"
【美国5-8月份猪价行情走势预测】“经济学家就像电脑 。他们需要输入一些真实数据 。——肯尼思·博尔丁”
相关经验推荐
- 各地猪肉批发价也呈现稳中有涨的态势,利好生猪价格继续上涨
- 目前猪价上涨态势能够持续到五一还难说
- 五一期间猪价涨幅再次有所放缓,或进入第二轮行情盘整期
- 猪价目前还找不出第三方利好因素,养猪户不宜长时间过度压栏
- 湖南:五一节前猪价持续上涨的可能性不大,猪肉价格或将小幅上涨
- 漫威漫画顺序 漫威漫画著名英雄美国队长介绍
- 猪价反弹或带动物价上行
- 屠宰企业借节日前生猪集中出栏的时机压价逼量,猪价止涨下滑
- 生猪价格的持续上扬除了造就了养殖户持续压栏的热情
- 猪肉消费即将进入淡季,猪价达到心理预期价位的速度或将放缓